Today is my birthday. I am 37, which makes me either young or old depending on what side of the hill you are standing on.
Overcome with nostalgia, I wanted to have my birthday in Damascus, which is where, on this day 13 years ago, I celebrated my 24th birthday at our apartment in Damascus. At 24, there was no nostalgia--only looking forward to the future. I’m wondering now if the strong presence of nostalgia indicates that I am more on the older end of the spectrum rather than the younger end. Again, I guess that depends on how one looks at it.
We found out yesterday that there is no way we’ll get into Syria. We visited the Syrian embassy here in Amman and spoke to a lady that worked there.
“You are American citizens only?” she asked.
“Yes.”
“Not Jordanian too?”
“No.”
“Then the only way you can get visa is through the Syrian embassy in Washington, D.C.”
We suspected that would be the case but wanted to find out for sure.
Apparently, you need to get your Syrian visa as far away from the Middle East as possible. Once you’re here in an Arab country, you’re screwed. On the surface this doesn’t make much sense until you understand that Syria is a heavily controlled police state that has been under a dictatorship for over 30 years. All foreign entry and travel within the country is under the watchful eye of the mukabarat (police).
We knew all this from having lived in Damascus in 1993 under the watchful eye of Hafiz al-Asad. Following his death in 2000, presidential power was ceded to his son Bashar. The face on the presidential posters and billboards all over the country have changed, but for the most part, it’s politics as usual.
This morning, I watched the official Syrian news channel on ArabSat. There was a huge demonstration in central Damascus where thousands of people holding Syrian and Palestinian flags, pickets signs with either slogans or pictures of Bashar al-Asad.
There looked to be over 10,000 people jammed into the central square and the four major streets feeding into it.
The chaos and death that has occurred this past week in Lebanon and northern Israel will pale in comparison to the tragedy that will occur if Syria becomes militarily involved in the escalating conflict, which is looking to be more and more likely.
I am no Middle East political expert, but based on what I do know, I believe the following scenario is possible and likely if the UN Security Council continues to be unsuccessful at brokering a cease-fire and/or neither side backs down:
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will continue to bomb southern Lebanon where Hezbollah is most concentrated.
[According to The Daily Star, an English language newspaper in Lebanon, the Israeli military on Thursday, dropped leaflets across Lebanon warning residents to evacuate areas where Hezbollah is active. “Due to the terrorist activities carried out by Hezbollah,” the leaflets read, “the Israeli Army will continue its work within Lebanese territories for as long as it deems fit to protect Israeli citizens. For your own safety and because we do not wish to cause any more civilian deaths, you are advised to avoid all places frequented by Hezbollah. You should know that the continuation of terrorist activities against Israel will be considered a double-edged sword for you and Lebanon.”]
Hezbollah will continue to launch kyutsha rockets into northern Israel, targeting population centers in Haifa where more civilians will be killed.
The IDF will also continue to bomb airports and transportation routes (especially the highway to Damascus) in Beruit and other areas in northern Lebanon. They will continue to bomb power and communications infrastructure throughout the country. The civilian death toll will rise and more Lebanese will continue to flee Lebanon, primarily into Syria.
The IDF will carry out a ground offensive into southern Lebanon at which point Syrian troops coming across the western border near the Golan will join Hezbollah militants to fight against the IDF. The IDF will retreat to the south and west toward the Mediterranean, leaving Syrian troops and Hezbollah militants to be annihilated by Israeli naval shelling and air force sorties.
Southern Lebanon will be transformed into scorched earth and a mass grave just like what happened in the Golan Heights in 1967. Israel will occupy southern Lebanon where it will set up a security zone.
[Some will see this as Israeli aggression resulting in the taking of more Arab territory. Others will see it as Israel defending itself from terrorism. Some will see it as a tragedy, others will see it as victory.]
If the situation escalates like this, the possibility of direct military involvement by Iran (the primary supporter of Hezbollah) will become imminent. Should that occur, it will create an international security crisis and a complex political quagmire that will be difficult for all involved to navigate without sinking further into the depths of war.
I hope I am wrong about all of this. Meanwhile, here in Amman on my 37th birthday with the afternoon call to prayer coming into the room from the open window, I’m wondering what God thinks of all this mischief we’re creating here during our short time upon the earth where the glory of Man becomes buried again and again beneath a dark mound of hate and violence.
